The biggest comfort is that it’s out of my control, and it’s not so much my fault.
I was considering the idea of a kind of Drake equation for dating and romance, prompted by a recent episode of This American Life. You take the population of where you live, and start taking away percentages of people that won’t fit you romantically, and you’re finally left with a really shockingly small number of people you could have a serious relationship with.
- The population of Santa Cruz, CA, is about 58,000 as of 2008. [1]
- Of these, roughly 50% are women (which matches my tastes), leaving 29,000.
- Of these, 32.6% are between the ages of 25 and 34, using data from 2000, leaving 9,454 [2]. This part of the sieve happily gets rid of the UCSC undergrad population almost entirely, so we at least won’t have to do that cut below.
- 13% of people in Santa Cruz are married. This might be a low estimate, since women in this age group are the most likely to be married, and since that number indicates just the number who live with a spouse. This leaves 8,225. [ibid]
- Assume half of these people are in serious, committed relationships, and aren’t interested in a new relationship in the near future. 4,113.
- About 46% of people in Santa Cruz had “some college” in 2000. Assuming that this is a good indicator of someone intelligent enough that I could be interested in, this leaves 1,905 [3].
- Now, getting into something I’m pulling out of my ass, assume that I’d find one in ten of this remaining group “attractive,” and that their personality would match what I’m looking for in a long-term relationship. 190.
- Now assume that one in ten of those women would find me equally attractive (yes, this is a seriously, seriously, seriously optimistic estimate, I think; I have pretty strong evidence that I’m not attractive, but we’ll play along with our 0.1 estimate). That’s 19.
Nine. Teen.
So, 0.03% of all the people in Santa Cruz are even potential matches, or about 1 in 3,000. If I met one new person a week, every week — which really doesn’t happen, since I pretty much see the same people over and over — I’d have even odds (50/50) of meeting one of them in four years. I never even go on any dates, so it’s not even like I’m trying out anyone I’d be meeting.
Now, Santa Cruz is a relatively small town, and things get a little better if we go outside it. San Francisco has about 15 times the population of Santa Cruz, so if I moved there the potential pool would jump to 285, and maybe I could meet more new people every week. It’s still grim. And lonely.
Edited 2009-02-18 @20:05 to add: yeah, OK, who am I kidding? The reverse attraction rate would be more like 1 in 100 women who would find me attractive. If that. So in all of Santa Cruz, there is one, maybe two, women who I have any potential with.